5/1节终于有时间可以看书了，是上个月从amazon买的“Unconventional Success - A fundamental Approach to Personal Investment", 作者是David F. Swensen,chief investment officer of Yale university. 他在管理耶鲁基金期间，录得年均17%的回报率。

因为有些新的单词和概念，做了些笔记：

 

Source of Return

Capital Market provide three tools for investors to employ in generating investment returns:

1) Asset allocation 资产分配（将一个投资组合分为不同资产种类的过程，主要资产种类包括债券、股票或现金。资产分配的目的在于通过分散投资减低风险）

2) Market Timing 市场时机

3) Security selection证券选择

 

作者的观点是

 

Asset allocation decisions play a central role in determing investor results. 

 

A number of well-regarded studies of institutional portfolios concludes that approximately 90% of the variability of returns stems from asset allocation, leaving approximately 10 percent of the variability to be determined by secuirty selection and market timing.

 

Another important piece of research on performance of institutional investors suggests that 100% of investor returns derive from asset allocation, relegating security selection and market timing to an inconsequential role.

 

 对于long term asset allocation ,有3个主要原则：

1）The importance of equity ownership

2) the efficacy of portfolio diversification

3) the significance of tax sensitivity

 

1）The importance of equity ownership

对于equity，有一个看法：

stockholders occupy a risker position .

研究表明：

over long periods of time stock returns exceed those of bonds and cash.

证据是：

Over the nearly eight-decade period from 1926 to 2003. U.S. stocks produced an annual compound return of 10.4%, U.S. government bonds (美国国库券)returned 5.4%, and U.S. treasury bills (短期国库券)generated3.7%.The 5% point difference between stock and boned returns represents the historical risk premium(风险溢价）, defined as the return to equity holders for accepting risk above the level inherent in bond investments.

 之所谓，高风险，高回报（只要时间够长，例如80年）

 

2) the efficacy of portfolio diversification

Sensible individuals take care to distribute assets across a range of investment alternatives. The act of diversification provides a free lunch of enhanced returns and reduced risk, increasing the likelihood that an investor will stay the course in difficult market environments.

多样化是免费的午餐。

 

*Market Timing fails to make an important contribution to institutional portfolio results, because investors quite sensibly show reasonable constancy in holdings of various asset types.